Friends

(Cross-posted at ML, BFM, and SSP-pb)

Since early 2009, the Tea Party movement has gained an enormous amount of media attention. While claiming to be a non-partisan movement, the Tea Party is remarkably consistent with some of the core constituencies at the heart of Republican Party since the late 1960s. In particular, the themes commonly evoked by Tea Party participants (economic libertarianism, fervent individualism, and deep distrust of any governmental intervention) largely mirror the platform of Republican Representative Ron Paul's 2008 candidacy for the GOP presidential nomination. Indeed, many organizers of Paul's campaign and leaders in the Young American for Freedom (YAF) were behind many of the early Tea Party events in 2009.

The rise of the Tea Party movement represents in part a return of many conservative libertarians to the GOP. The candidacy of Barry Goldwater in 1964 did much to bring libertarians into the Republican Party, were they largely remained for following four decades. During his second term, George W. Bush was responsible for driving some libertarians out, as many became extremely disenchanted with the Republican Party's focus on social issues and increased governmental expansion. While not abandoning the Republican Party entirely, a sizable percentage of libertarians voted from Democratic candidates in 2006 and 2008 for reasons similar to those voiced in blogger Markos Moulitsas's 2006 Cato Unbound article.
Thus, the Tea Party movement should be viewed as a campaign bus returning disenchanted Republicans to an active role in the GOP. As numerous polls show, members of the movement are overwhelming conservative, white, older, well off, and evangelical Protestant in religious identity. The overriding narrative should not be that the Tea Party is a bunch of angry independents ready to forge an independent political movement, but rather that libertarians will be an active participant in the ideological battles within in the Republican Party following the November 2010 elections that will likely last until the end of the 2012 GOP Presidential primary.

Of course, American politics are decided at the ballot box, not at Ron Paul forums. The 2010 Michigan State House and State Senate primaries offer a good perspective on whether the Tea Party movement will be able to translate its message resurgent libertarianism into political success.

I identified the candidates running in the Republican or Democratic primary for the State House (508 total) and the State Senate (164 total), and used the endorsements from the Republican Liberty Caucus (RLC) and the Independence Caucus (IC) to determined if candidates could be considered authentic supporters of the Tea Party Movement. The RLC has long been a libertarian action group within the Republican Party. Founded in 1991, the RLC's website states that it strongly supports "individual rights, limited government and free enterprise," hallmarks of conservative libertarianism. The IC was created in 2008 by supporters of Jason Chaffetz, a libertarian Republican who defeated long-time Republican Congressman Chris Cannon in Utah's 3rd Congressional District. The IC's website also supports libertarian principles, including "limited government, fiscal responsibility, and constitutional authority." I used the endorsements from the RLC and IC to determine a candidate's adherence to the Tea Party movement since many candidates, while stating vague solidarity, at heart want to run away from being associated with the conservative libertarian principles of the movement.

As shown in the linked Google document, both the RLC and IC endorsed a number of candidates in the 2010 primary. 25 State House and 12 State Senate candidates were endorsed by either the RLC or the IC, and four (two in the State House and two in the State Senate) were endorsed by both groups. All candidates were Republicans, and two were GOP incumbents in the State House (David Agema-74th and Bob Genetski-88th).

The Tea Party candidates had a lousy record in state house primary races. Of the 25 candidates in State House primaries, five did not face a primary challenge (including Agema and Genteski). However, only Agema and Genteski are likely to head to Lansing after November 2010, as the three challengers are in districts that are either safely Democratic (Bret Allen-29th and Chase Ingersoll-53rd) or have a strong Democratic incumbent (Steven Mobley-62nd). The remaining 20 candidates faced competitive primaries, resulting in only two Tea Party candidates winning the Republican nomination. One winner (Cynthia Kallgren-13th) is a sure loser this November, leaving Lori Levi (District 21) as the only non-incumbent Tea Party candidate who has a legitimate shot at winning.

Why did the remaining 18 Tea Party candidates lose their primaries? One (Dave Ryan-103rd) signed a financial waiver, dooming himself to sure defeat with promising not to raise more than $1,000 for the entire election cycle. While nearly all of the candidates provided personal loans to support their campaigns, many Tea Party candidates were simply unable to raise the money to compete successfully in the primary. Only 10 candidates raised more than $10,000 during the pre-primary filing period, and only five were able to raise more than $10,000 without personal loans to carry them over to the top. Thus, a large number of Tea Party candidates simply starved for a lack of funding.

Three races in Kent County are instructive to the struggle that Tea Party candidates faced in the 2010 primary season. Two of the races (Eric Larson-72nd and Jordan Bush-75th) featured aggressive first-time candidates who ran against more moderate Republicans who raised more traditional GOP themes. While Larson had an overwhelming financial advantage he lost to Ken Yonker by a narrow margin, a defeat that some say was caused by his over-reliance on direct mail and Yonker's out-hustling him door-to-door. Bush faced a more uphill struggle against Goei, who had a financial advantage and establishment support, and while connecting well in his Alger Heights neighborhood and portions of the 2nd Ward, did not connect with voters in the Calvin Ghetto (east of Plymouth Street, south of Hall Street). In the 86th District, Walker Mayor Rob Ver Heulen lost to Lisa Lyons, daughter of former GOP State Senator Dick Posthumus, in a classic west/east side battle that once again, the more populated east side one. Lyons' membership in the Posthumus political dynasty did not hurt, nor did the fact that candidates John Schwartz and Kimberly Cummings help divide up the Republican vote outside of Lyons' political base in Ada Township and Lowell.

In the State Senate, a somewhat more mixed picture appears. The RLC and IC parted ways and endorsed opposing candidates in the 7th and 30th State Senate districts, with the IC supported candidate winning in the 7th (Patrick Colbeck) and the RLC candidate victorious in the 30th (Arlan Meekhof). Meekhof will win easily in November, while Colbeck will likely be in the crosshairs in an extremely competitive swing district. While 7th District Democratic candidate Kathleen Law is flawed in so many ways, the presence of former Republican John Stewart as an independent candidate could steal a large number of moderate Republican votes from Colbeck. This will be a race to watch in November. Kyle Haubrich was unopposed in the 23rd District GOP primary, and will be defeated handily in November by Democratic Senator Gretchen Whitmer.

Of the remaining seven Tea Party candidates with primaries, only David Hildenbrand (District 29) won. Hildenbrand is a sitting State Representative with strong conservative backing from his Lowell-based district, and will face strong general election opponent in former Grand Rapids City Commissioner David LaGrand. The remaining six faced challenges similar to those faced by their state house counterparts: low fundraising numbers and opposition from the GOP establishment.

Will the Tea Party movement have a future in Michigan politics past November 2010? I suspect that there will be no more than two Tea Party-endorsed members in both the Michigan State Senate and State House. However, the ideological battle within the Michigan Republican Party will continue unabated in the coming two years, particularly if GOP gubernatorial candidate Rick Snyder is elected. Of all the GOP candidates, Snyder is the one that raised the more ire among Tea Party supporters in Michigan, who seem him as the second coming of William Milliken. It will be fascinating to see how Snyder campaigns as a moderate while keeping the Tea Party movement within the GOP. Regardless, I am sure John Yob will play a role.  

Final 12am update. So, overnight a couple of the races have finalized. Huizinga holds off Reimersma in the 2nd, Hildenbrand wins in the 29th, Yonker comes back to win in the 72nd, Peter McGregor wins in the 73rd, Lisa Lyons wins in the 86th. In Muskegon, Maria Hovey-Wright wins in the 92nd State House Dem primary, while Ben Gillette will face Holly Hughes in the 91st District.

Thanks for following, and I'll write more later next week.

11:46pm With 97% of the vote in, LaGrand leading Dean 60% to 40% in the 29th State Senate Democratic primary. No word on where the precincts coming in, but I'm assuming GR is in.

11:45pm. Hovey and Nash are neck and neck in the 92nd State House race. Still too close to call in the 91st on both sides.

11:35pm. The two congressional races are still open on the GOP side. In the 2nd, Huizinga and Kuipers are essentially tied at 29%, with Riemersma back at 19%. In the 3rd, with only Grand Rapids out, Amash has 40% of the vote to Heacock's 24% and Hardiman's 23%. I said Amash was going to win months ago, and from the results so far, it looks like he will.

11:30pm. With just Gaines Township outstanding, looks like Ken Yonker is heading for another defeat at the hands of a libertarian GOP candidate. Eric Yonker looks likely to win Justin Amash's old seat. LaGrand pulling ahead in the 29th, but all of Grand Rapids has yet to report.

11:15pm. Looks like Kwame's mom is heading to defeat in the 13th Congressional primary. Wood-TV has called the 77th GOP primary for Hooker. Miles is winning the 3rd Democratic primary easily. McGregor pulling ahead in the 73rd.  

11:05pm. In the 3rd, with 37% of the vote in, Amash leads with 41%, while Hardiman inches up to 26%. No State Senate updates.

State House races, with Kentwood in, Eric Larson leads the 72nd District primary with 47% of the vote with 52% against Yonkers 42%. Peter McGregor has a narrow lead with 30% of the vote in the 73rd against Bruce Hawley (22% to 18%). In the 75th District GOP primary, Bing Goei wins with 57% of the vote against Jordan Bush's 43%. Goei will face Brandon Dillon in the general election in November. With 82% of the vote in the 77th GOP primary, Hooker narrowly leads Nate Viersman  29% to 27%. in the 86th, with 34% of the vote in, Lyons' lead is down to 49% against VerHuelen's 34%. Finally, in the 17th District County Commission Democratic primary, Candice Chivis has apparently knocked off incumbent James Vaughn.  
11:30pm. With just Gaines Township outstanding, looks like Ken Yonker is heading for another defeat at the hands of a libertarian GOP candidate. Eric Yonker looks likely to win Justin Amash's old seat. LaGrand pulling ahead in the 29th, but all of Grand Rapids has yet to report.

11:15pm. Looks like Kwame's mom is heading to defeat in the 13th Congressional primary. Wood-TV has called the 77th GOP primary for Hooker. Miles is winning the 3rd Democratic primary easily. McGregor pulling ahead in the 73rd.  

11:05pm. In the 3rd, with 37% of the vote in, Amash leads with 41%, while Hardiman inches up to 26%. No State Senate updates.

State House races, with Kentwood in, Eric Larson leads the 72nd District primary with 47% of the vote with 52% against Yonkers 42%. Peter McGregor has a narrow lead with 30% of the vote in the 73rd against Bruce Hawley (22% to 18%). In the 75th District GOP primary, Bing Goei wins with 57% of the vote against Jordan Bush's 43%. Goei will face Brandon Dillon in the general election in November. With 82% of the vote in the 77th GOP primary, Hooker narrowly leads Nate Viersman  29% to 27%. in the 86th, with 34% of the vote in, Lyons' lead is down to 49% against VerHuelen's 34%. Finally, in the 17th District County Commission Democratic primary, Candice Chivis has apparently knocked off incumbent James Vaughn.

10:30pm. Synder wins-I was wrong on Hoesktra winning. For the 2nd Congressional District, Kuipers and Huizinga are neck and neck at 31% with 48% of the vote in. In the 3rd with 19% of the vote in, Amash has 42% of the vote to Hardiman and Heacock at 23% each. Still nothing from GR or Wyoming yet.

In the 29th State Senate, no update. In the 30th, Meekhof maintains a 52% to 41% lead with 65% in. In the State House races, no real change in the 72nd or 73rd, and nothing from the 75th. In the 77th with 17% of the vote in, Hooker leads with 40%. In the 86th, Lyons still leads handily. In the 91st GOP primary,

9:30pm Muskegon County update. In the 91st GOP primary, Holly Hughes nearrowly leads Ken Punter with 55% of the vote. In the Democratic primary, Ben Gillette leads with 60% of the vote against Brandon Gezmzer. Not much data for the 92nd Democratic primary.

9:15pm Wow-Virg Bernero wins! That was called quickly. On the GOP side, one tough nerd is leading with 34% of the vote against Hoekstra's 30% (9% of the vote in, a lot of time for this race to shake out.

In the 2nd Congressional District, we have a three way race between Huizinga, Kuipers, and Reimersma, each with 25% of the vote with 13% of the vote in. Much of the vote in is coming from Ottawa County, with very little from Muskegon or the northern counties. Fred Johnson is winning the Democratic primary confortably. In the 3rd Congressional District, Amash is leading with 47% of the vote with 9% of the total vote in. While he has a commanding lead, none of the urban or core suburban areas have reported yet, so stay tuned. On the Democratic side, Miles leads with 67% of the vote.

In the state senate races, no change in the 29th District, while Meekhof maintains his lead in the 30th District GOP primary, now with 28% of the vote in. In the state house races, former Democratic candidate Bruce Hawley leads with 20% of the vote in the 73rd District, with 20% of the vote in. He's followed closely by Norton and McGregor. No results from the 75th or 77th Districts yet. In the 86th, Lyons continues to roll up her lead in the eastern portion of the district, and now leads with 72% of the vote with 10% of the total vote counted. Still way to early.

9:00pm. More results coming in from the outlying areas of Kent County (Bowne, Courtland, Oakland, Spencer Townships). Justin Amash is still leading in the GOP race with 46% of the vote, with Heacock at 19% and Hardiman with 17% (6% of the total vote in). On the Democratic side Miles is leading with 66% of the vote against Mayhue.

In the State Senate races, no change in the 29th District primaries. In the 30th, Meekhof's lead has been cut down to 51% of the vote against VanderKamp's 40% with 24% of the vote in.

State House races, in the 72nd, Yonker leads the GOP primary with 52% against Larson's 40% with 2% of the vote in (Caledonia). In the 73rd, Peter McGregor leads with 23% of the vote with 11% of the total vote in. No data from the 75th or 77th districts. In the 86th, Lyons leads with 75% with 6% of the vote in (Lowell City and Township).

8:35pm. Some early returns in. With 3% of the vote in the 29th, LaGrand leads with 62% of the vote in the Democratic primary, while Hildenbrand leads with 88% in the GOP primary (Only Lowell City and Township are in as of now). Artlene Meekhof leads with 59% of the vote in the 30th District with 9% of the vote in. In the US 2nd District, Wayne Kuipers leads with 28% with Riemeresma at 24% with 5% of the vote in.

We have a number of great races to cover on this wonderful primary day! Before you come to WMR, please vote, and let us know what you see on the ground.

Below the fold: US Congress Districts 2 and 3, State Senate District 29, State House Districts 72, 73, 75, 77, 86, 91, and 92, Kent County Commission seat 17)

8:34PM-in the first bit of data, with 1% of the vote in, Tom Norton leads in the 73th with 19%.  

Below the fold: 6th CD (R), 20th Sen (D), 20th Sen (R), 60th (D), 61st (D), 80th (R), Kal County Commission 3rd (D), 6th (D), 12th (D).

UPDATE 1: Jones appears to have an insurmountable advantage over Mark Totten in the 20th. Sean McCann has won the nomination in the 60th over Chris Praedel and Dustin Harback. We won't have numbers for Grant Taylor's write-in for a long while, but based on checker/challenger precincts, Grant has fallen short.

UPDATE 2 (10 pm): Congratulations to new County Commissioner Mike Seals, a community activist and great guy who is unopposed in the fall. Congratulations to Bob Jones, who will go up against Tonya Schuitmaker in the fall for the 20th Senate.
I will be in a precinct today, with credentials as a Democratic checker / challenger, but also seeing how our new laptop-based poll book is working out. This will save municipalities some post-election work in that who voted will not need to be hand-entered into the database (from a paper poll book) any more.

6th CD (R) Hoogendyk 340 2663 20102 Upton 421 3332 26443
Many of us are rooting for Jack, so that Cooney has a better shot. I don't think we'll get that lucky. UPDATE: Upton wins again.

20th Sen (D) Jones   129 1709 4273 Totten 83 795 2227
This has turned into a mud-fest at the end, sad to say.

UPDATE: to put it in a nutshell, Jones was slightly ahead out-county, but crushed Totten in Kalamazoo City, where he was a long-time mayor, and then 60th District Rep.

20th Sen (R) DeShazor 104 870 3341 Schuitmaker 406 3248 9045 Wenke 247 1872 5016
Early on, this appeared to be DeShazor's race, with his power base in Portage. But DeShazor is a pragmatist, and they don't seem to be doing well in Republican circles these days. Tonya has a boat-load of endorsements, including many from Portage; the other two chose not to post their endorsements on their web pages, from which the conclusion is obvious.

60th (D) Harback 17 69 182 McCann   43 777 2298 Praedel 14 209 586
Sean McCann has carefully prepared this run for a long time - gaining experience as he goes - and this result is showing the fruits of that.
61st (D) Batten   82 Taylor (write-in) 24
First results, in the one precinct I'm just back from checker / challenger, does not look promising for Grant Taylor's write-in bid for the 61st. UPDATE: Results on this will not be available until later this week.

80th (R) Harrington 709 Hartman 1644 Linderman 830 Nesbitt 4736 Queen 170 Thompson   1538
As far as I can tell from this distance, these are six Republican "Cut taxes. Then, cut taxes some more" clones. I am sure there are differences at closer range.

Aric Nesbitt will be going up against Tom Erdmann this fall.

Kal Cty Comm 3rd (D) Barnard (i) 54 109 149 157 Sweet 52 88 116 125
This race is surprisingly close for a strong incumbent versus a new challenger. UPDATE: Barnard pulls through over Sweet.

6th (D) Seals   182 275 322 Thompson (i) 119 145 181
Initial results (3 of 7 pcts) looking great for Mike Seals.

Mike Seals is our new County Commissioner!

12th (D) McCormick 33 137 201 Nieuwenhuis (i) 24 113 150 Spicer 17 56 69
Challenger Scott McCormick has ousted incumbent John Nieuwenhuis. He is a campaigning demon, and will need to be to hold this seat in the fall.

The Primary Election is tomorrow, August 3rd, and time is running short to make sure you are prepared to vote. With the Governor’s race, 38 Senate seats and 110 House seats at stake in this election, you cannot miss the opportunity to make your voice heard!

For more information, visit:

- Michigan Voter Information Center
- Mlive Voter Guide

These sites can let you know if you’re registered, aid you in finding your polling place and allow you to view more information on the candidates running in your area. 

It is essential that everyone who is eligible votes for the candidates who will bring the change we need to Lansing. Make your voice heard by voting on August 3rd!

Candidates volunteers and staff are making their GOTV runs. Phones are in constant use, tempers are fraying, and everyone is trying to hold out until Tuesday.

At the 69th Annual Westwood Ice Cream Social last night, Tonya Schuitmaker (R), Bob Jones (D), and Mark Totten (D) were there from the 20th Senate race, Sean McCann (D) from the 60th House, and write-in candidate Grant Taylor (D) and Margaret O'Brien (R) from the 61st. This event always brings out the local politicos.

I've avoided writing very much about campaign controversies here, because I've been involved in some of them. Suffice it to say that I will be glad when this primary is over, and we can concentrate on the other side.

Over the fold, some notes about local Kalamazoo races.
Charges and counter-charges have been flying between the Jones and Totten campaigns. I won't go into detail, but I have tried to get the campaigns to cool it, without success. I understand the need to contrast your position with your opponent's, but my concern is that when certain lines are crossed, it becomes more difficult to come together again as Democrats after the primary.

An interesting race has been Grant Taylor's write-in campaign against Thomas Batten for the 61st Democratic nomination. Grant had been running for his brother John Taylor's county commission seat, until John dropped out of the race for the 20th Senate and decided to stay on the commission. Grant moved quickly into Oshtemo and the 61st, only to be told that he was too late to establish residency and file. Nothing daunted, he decided to run a write-in campaign, and quickly attracted a great deal of support. He claims to be endorsed by 15 out of 16 local elected officials.

My household has received 12 pieces of mail from Grant, including three with convenient peel-off stickers to affix to the ballot. At the last State Central Committee meeting, I asked Mark Brewer if he could recall in his experience any successful write-in campaign against a filed opponent at the state house level or above. Mark thought for a moment, and said he could not. If Grant is able to pull this off, it would be history-making.

The Kalamazoo Gazette has endorsed Bouchard and Bernero for Governor, Bob Jones and Tonya Schuitmaker in the 20th, Sean McCann for the 60th, Mike Seals over incumbent commissioner Frank Thompson in the 6th Kalamazoo County Commission, and Scott Spicer over incumbent commissioner John Nieuwenhuis in the 12th KCC.

The Press story

(cross-posted at ML and BFM-pb)

As with the State Senate pre-primary filing statements, I've performed an analysis of the top fundraisers for the Michigan State House primary races. Again, for those interested in the complete set of financial data, you can request a subscription at peterbratt@gmail.com.

The top fifteen candidates in terms of money raised are listed in the link provided below:
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

Five of the top 15 fundraisers are incumbents, and five of the 15 are Democrats.  Two of the top fundraisers are Mike Shirkley and Mark Ouimet, Republicans running in open swing seats (Districts 65th and 52nd) that the Democrats will be fighting to hold. It is interesting to note that of the top Democratic fundraisers, only one is from metropolitan Detroit (Rashida Tlaib District 12). If the Democrats remain in the majority (which I predict they will), I'd expect to see Scripps, Schmidt, and Tlaib in the running for leadership positions. In good news for the Democrats, Brandon Dillon, who is running for the 75th State House seat vacated by Robert Dean, raised a significant amount of money that leaves him with a comfortable cash on hand advantage for the general election.

The top 15 spenders are listed next (the second tab of the spreadsheet):
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

Once again, Republicans dominate this list, with self financers like Holly Hughes (District 91-Swing) and Jeff Oesterle (District 67-Safe DEM) repaying a large portion of their loans and thus leading the list. As with the State Senate list, many candidates with heavy spending are in competitive primaries.

Incumbents and candidates personally financing their campaigns dominate the list of candidates with the most cash on hand listed on the third tab of the spreadsheet:
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

11 of the 15 candidates with the greatest cash on hand advantage are incumbents, and nine of these are Democratic incumbents, three of whom are in swing Districts (Dian Slavens District 21, Sarah Roberts District 24, and Lisa Brown District 39). This financial edge is a heartening sign for continued Democratic control of the House.

Finally, Republicans hold all of the top 15 spots on the fourth spreadsheet listing candidates with the greatest amount of personal debt.  
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

While money can't buy victory, it sure can help in competitive seats like Districts 21, 52, and 91. As in some State Senate primaries, the candidates are literally locked in a spending arms race in the final weeks until August 3.  

From Kalamazoo Gazette:
More than 800,000 gallons of oil have been released into a creek in Marshall that feeds the Kalamazoo River.  Houston-based Enbridge Energy Partners said Monday that oil flowed into the Talmadge Creek and the Kalamazoo River after a leak developed in its pipeline.   Enbridge said the 30-inch pipeline transfers about 8 million gallons of crude oil a day from Griffith, Ind., to Sarnia, Ontario. The leak originated from the Enbridge site, 16000 Division Drive, near the border of Marshall and Fredonia townships in central Calhoun County, according to a report Battle Creek Enquirer's website.   The pipeline crosses the Talmadge Creek about one-and-a-half miles southeast of the Kalamazoo River.

I am currently on vacation in Ontario, but heard of this by email from Kalamazoo Township Supervisor Terri  mellinger, who along with local emergency officials is closely monitoring the situation. The Kalamazoo River passes through our township.

Statement from Sen. Carl Levin:

I am deeply concerned about the effects of the oil spill near Marshall, including the environmental impact and the disruption to residents and businesses. It is also deeply worrisome that the oil from the spill has made its way into the Kalamazoo River.

My office has been in close contact with relevant federal agencies to make sure that those carrying out the cleanup have all the resources they need to complete the cleanup job as quickly as possible.

For now, the focus is on limiting the damage and cleaning up the oil. It is also vitally important that the company responsible for the spill bear the costs of cleanup and that it compensate anyone who has suffered damages related to the spill. I will continue to do all I can to ensure that both the cleanup and the compensation of victims are quick and effective.

(Cross-posted at ML and BFM-pb)

State Senate Pre-Primary Filing Statements

While I have much more information on my subscription-only database, I figured that please might appreciate some basic information about the top fundraisers for Michigan State Senate primary races. Again, for those interested in the complete set of financial data, you can request a subscription at peterbratt@gmail.com.

Nearly all candidates have reported their financial data (with the glaring exceptions of Rebekah Warren in the 18th and Coleman Young Jr. in the 1st). The top fifteen candidates in terms of money raised are listed in the link provided below:
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

11 of the top fundraisers of Republicans, and two are in the 20th State Senate District primary. David LaGrand and David Hildenbrand are two other top fundraisers, and are potential opponents in a general election matchup in the 29th State Senate District. The top 15 spenders are listed next (the second tab of the spreadsheet):
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

Incumbents and candidates personally financing their campaigns dominate the list of candidates with the most cash on hand listed on the third tab of the spreadsheet:
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

Republicans hold all but two of the top 15 spots on the fourth spreadsheet linked below.
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

While money can't buy victory, it sure can help. However, in a couple of primaries, namely the 11th and 20th Republican races, the candidates are literally locked in a spending arms race in the final weeks. Should be interesting to see what happens on August 3.

An analysis of the State House races will be provided later this week.

(Monday 7/26 update: Representative Dean's financial statement was released on Sunday July 25. Dean raised $30,271, spent $22,779, and has $3,031 cash on hand. The campaign has debts of $24,969, a loan which Dean gave to the campaign on January 29, 2010. Dean has a total of 22 donors, and in addition to his loan he contributed another $3,500 to the campaign. So, essentially, Dean's donors have given him a grand total of $2,500.-pb)

While I have much more information on my subscription only database, I figured that folks at West Michigan Rising might appreciate some basic information about a couple of races of interest. Again, for those interested, you can request a subscription at peterbratt@gmail.com.

20th State Senate District

First, in the 20th State Senate District there is a lot of money being thrown around. Lorence Wenke raised $317,260, spent $211,476 and has $125,125 cash on hand. Much of this money came from Wenke's own pocket, as he has loaned himself $365,000. Wenke is followed by Tonya Schuitmaker who raised $126,464, spent $146,767, and has $106,085 in cash on hand. Like Wenke, Schuitmaker has spent a large amount of her own money, providing herself with $100,000 in a personal loan. Schuitmaker and Wenke are both from different sides of the Republican tent-Wenke is an unabashed socially liberal Republican, while Schuitmaker has lined up support from conservative loyalists in the 20th District despite her inferior geographic position (being from Van Buren County rather than Kalamazoo). The third candidate in the GOP primary, moderate Larry DeShazor, has raised $34,141, spent $30,809, and has $3,331 cash on hand, with personal loans of $19,804. While many consider DeShazor to be the strongest general election candidate the GOP could run, his poor fund raising is likely to hinder him in this free spending primary. For what it is worth, I'm predicting Schuitmaker to win on August 3.

On the Democratic side, Mark Totten has again substantially out raised Representative Robert Jones. Totten raised $65,942, spent $112,928, and has $73,100 in cash on hand, with a personal loan of $32,704. In contrast, Jones raised $49,770, spent $40,639, has $9,131 in cash on hand, and has a personal loan of $10,377. While Ballenger is calling this race for Jones, I think Totten is going to pull this one out.  
29th State Senate District

In the other big west Michigan primary, the 29th State Senate district has five candidates, three Republicans and two Democrats. on the Republican side, State Representative David Hildenbrand raised $100,307, spent $68,170 and has $170,192 in cash on hand. Hildenbrand's opponent Lori Wiersma raised $48,239, spent $39,237, and has $8,991 in cash on hand (and a personal loan of $1,750). While Wiersma is a stronger general election candidate for the GOP as she hails from Grand Rapids and is more moderate, it is hard to beat someone who has such a sizable financial edge that the GOP Representative from Lowell does. The third GOP candidate Judith Faye Kapteyn did not file a statement.

On the Democratic side, David LaGrand raised an enormous sum of $116,938. LaGrand spent $64,739, and has $52,198 in cash on hand. LaGrand's opponent Representative Robert Dean did not submit a statement as of 9am Saturday morning. Given all the turmoil in the Dean campaign and that Dean's campaign treasurer is Noah Seifullah, who remains on the Dean campaign despite resigning in disgrace as Dean's chief of staff, the delay in a filing statement is somewhat expected. Regardless of Dean's financial haul, I expect him to be a serious disadvantage to LaGrand on August 3 (a prediction will come later next week).

State House Districts

In the state house races, there are few things to note. First, Democratic Representative Roy Schmidt raised a lot of money, pulling in $57,748, spending $15,699, and has $82,317 in cash on hand. Not bad for running against an GOP candidate who filed a financial waiver promising not to raise more than $1,000. There isn't much more news in any other race than in the 75th District.

75th State House District

This seat, which covers eastern Grand Rapids, features a bitter Republican primary between Bing Goei and Jordan Bush. Goei, who is generally viewed as the moderate, raised $44,256, spent $41,729, and has $2,527 in cash on hand. Goei also took out a personal loan of $10,000. Bush raised $19,490, spent $23,950, and has $2,965 in cash on hand (and a $8,880 personal loan). Given Goei's connections and endorsements by the GOP establishment, he was expected to raise substantial amounts of money, but this has not quiet panned out. Bush remains in contention, and I view the race as a toss up with 10 days to go.

Waiting for either Republican candidate is Democratic County Commissioner Brandon Dillon. Dillon nearly bested Roy Schmidt in the fund raising race, pulling in $51,281, while spending only $11,816 and has $39,465 in cash on hand. Dillon isn't napping as he waits for an opponent.  

The Justice Caucus of the Michigan Democratic Party announces the following endorsements:

Jim Ananich     49th House District

Robert Dean     29th Senate District

Brandon Dillon     75th House District

Fred Durhal     6th House District

Frank Houston     26th House District  

Pam Jackson     15th Senate District    

Deb Kennedy     23rd House District

Ellen Cogen Lipton     27th House District

Lonnie Scott     54th House District

Ned Staebler     53rd House District  

Gretchen Whitmer     23rd Senate District

Candidates running for federal office were required to submit their second quarter filing statements by July 15th at 5pm. Most of the financial data is online now, so let's look at two races close to WMR's heart: the 2nd and 3rd Michigan Congressional Districts.

In the 2nd District Republican primary, the long-standing cash on hand edge that Jay Riemersma had has largely disappeared. Of the seven candidates in the 2nd District primary, listed below is the 2nd quarter financial data:

CandidateContributions 2ndQ (Total)Spending 2ndQ (Total)Cash On Hand (debts) COOPER(R)$16,920 ($92,596)$75,949 ($164,952)$106,038 ($178,348) HUIZENGA(R)$108,124 ($292,481)$67,750 ($217,675)$100,756 ($25,000) KUIPERS(R)$75,415 ($188,005)$17,445 ($38,370)$149,634 MCCLURE(R)$4,682 ($4,682)$6,757 ($6,757)$1,419 REICHARDT(R)$66,376 ($102,349)$85,073 ($97,939)$3,981 RIEMERSMA(R)$122,545 ($448,153)$253,011 ($521,012)$127,540 ($200,000) WINCEL(R)$300 ($7,185)$7,664 ($11,993)$2,191 ($7,000) JOHNSON(D)$29,242 ($53,301)$20,258 ($37,797)$15,963 ($1,000)

Riemersma has just been burning cash this quarter, no doubt in part to working with Strategic National. With four candidates (Kuipers, Riemersma, Huizenga, and Cooper) having over $100,000 cash on hand for the final five weeks before the primary, the outcome is still in doubt. The winner of the primary will face Democratic candidate Fred Johnson, who reported respectable numbers. Go over the fold to see the 3rd District numbers.
CandidateContributions 2ndQ (Total)Spending 2ndQ (Total)Cash On Hand (debts) AMASH(R)$178,531 ($269,494)$132,958 ($182,959)$162,135 ($138,876) HARDIMNAN(R)$67,836 ($121,923)$77,381 ($78,243)$43,579 HEACOCK(R)$125,608 ($198,745)$172,496 ($172,496)$51,298 ($25,050) MILES(D)$138,119 ($195,449)$48,261 ($50,239)$259,983 ($115,000)

As of 2pm, Overbeek had not yet filed. Heading into the final month, Amash has a substantial cash on hand advantage over Heacock, which will like be used. Interestingly, Amash made a loan of $50,000 to his campaign during the 2nd quarter, bringing his total outstanding debts to $138,876. Hardiman has kept his spending down to remain financially competitive in the closing days of the campaign.

For all of Amash's denouements of liberals, I'm pleased to see that he is using Practical Political Consulting, a Democratic consulting firm run by Mark Grebner in East Lansing. When the going gets rough, use the best. Using the Campaign Resource Group run by Don Goris in Grand Rapids isn't that surprising.

http://www.mlive.com/politics/...

Wow!

Introduction

With just over three weeks before the August 3 primary, Republican and Democratic campaigns are starting to take a look at who might be coming to the polls. Voter turnout in August tends to be rather apathetic, given that many folks are out of town or find the choices on the ballot to be unappealing. However, the 2010 Republican and Democratic primaries have a host of interesting candidates to choose from, although none as interesting as in the 3rd Congressional District primary. The 3rd Congressional District covers Barry, Ionia, and Kent County (with the exception of Alpine, Sparta, and Tyrone Townships in the northwest corner of Kent County). Add to the 3rd District race the Democratic and Republican primary races for governor and the 29th State Senate seat (Kentwood/Grand Rapids), and the competitive Republican state house races in the 72nd, 73rd, 75th, 77th, and 86th districts, there are reasons to expect higher turnout in 2010.

http://i303.photobucket.com/al...
3rd District Primary

So how many voters might come to the polls on August 3 for the 3rd District primary? The past four election cycles provide some clues. Overall primary turnout varied from 2000 to 2008, with a record 117,247 voters coming out in 2004 (largely for the zoo millage), to a low of 64,368 voters in 2008. The large number of voters in 2004 hailed overwhelmingly from Kent County, and cast huge numbers of votes in the GOP primary.

Understanding the GOP 3rd District primary in context of November election numbers can be informative. In 2000 173,465 voted for general election vote leader Spencer Abraham while 61,914 cast a ballot in the Republican primary. In 2002 152,731 voted for Ehlers in the general, while 54,132 voted in the primary. In 2004 213,895 voted for Ehlers in the general, 91,241 voted in the primary. In 2006 169,533 voted for Ehlers in the general, 52,756 voted in the primary. In 2008 203,769 voted for Ehlers in November, and 46,150 voted in the primary. Despite the noise about tea party mania, time after time turnout is lower in the gubernatorial election cycle when compared to the presidential cycle two years earlier. GOP primary turnout was 54,132 in 2002, and 52,756 in 2006, and will likely be higher in 2010 given the high-interest races mentioned earlier, but it is not going to get anywhere near the high of 91,241 in 2004. Three weeks before the election, I expect that turnout will maximize at 80,000 for the Republican primary in 2010.

The same sort of analysis applies for the Democratic primary turnout. Democratic turnout has varied significantly over the past five primaries, with 16,705 voters in 2000, 44,629 in 2002, 26,006 in 2004, 27,766 in 2006, and 15,176 in 2008. While there is a competitive Democratic gubernatorial primary, and a primary in the 29th State Senate District, turnout will not be as high as in 2002, but probably in between turnout levels set in 2002 and 2006. I would make a guess that no more than 30,000 voters will cast ballots in the Democratic primary.

http://i303.photobucket.com/al...

3rd District Typology

As important as turnout is, where the voters come from is even more crucial for a campaign in the waning days. With an estimated turnout number in mind, where are the votes coming from? In the 3rd District primaries for both parties from 2000 to 2008 between 80% and 85% of the total vote will come from the Kent County portion of the 3rd District, while about 10% to 15% generally comes from Barry County, and about 6% comes from Ionia County.  Thus, Kent County is where the action is.

However, a more informative way to look at the 3rd District would be to classify the different communities in the district into four distinct types: Rural, Exurban, Inner-Ring Suburbs, and Core City.  Of course, the core city refers to Grand Rapids, which provided an average 19% of the total GOP primary vote over the past four cycles. A large portion of the GOP vote from Grand Rapids comes from the outlying portions of the 3rd Ward Dutch heartland, although there are similar GOP areas on the fringes of the 1st and 2nd Wards. Surrounding Grand Rapids are the inner ring suburbs of Kentwood, Wyoming, Grandville, East Grand Rapids, and Walker. These inner ring suburbs were largely built between 1920 and 1970, and face many of the same demographic and financial pressures facing Grand Rapids. Many of these suburbs have trended Democratic steadily over the past four cycles (especially in Wyoming and Kentwood), although strong bastions of social conservatives (in Grandville, Walker, and Wyoming) and economic conservatives (EGR) still exist. The inner ring suburbs provide 21% of the total GOP vote, giving the Grand Rapids metropolitan core about 40% of the total Republican vote. Over 32% of the GOP primary vote comes from the exurban suburbs, areas that were built largely after 1980 that have large lot sizes and have few of the infrastructure and demographic concerns of the core city and inner ring suburbs. The exurban areas of the 3rd District include Ada, Byron, Cannon, Cascade, Gaines, Grand Rapids Township, and Plainfield Townships. Finally, the rural portions of Kent, Barry, and Ionia Counties provide the final 25% of the GOP electorate.

On the Democratic side the story is quite different. Grand Rapids provides 37% of the total vote, and I suspect that this percentage will be even higher with the 29th State Senate District primary. The inner ring suburbs provide 24%, the exurban communities 19%, and the rural portions of the district 20%.

Conclusion

The suburbs, not the city, will play a key role in the 3rd District GOP primary that in which the three candidates represents different parts of the 3rd District. Heacock represents the core city and the Ehlers-Henry school of Dutch-Calvinism moderation, Hardiman the ideology of social conservativism that dominated the inner ring suburbs such until this past decade, while Amash represents the economic libertarianism that has sprung up rapidly from its slumber in the temple of Hayek and Ayn Rand over the past decade after the disastrous ideological experience of the George W. Bush Administration, and is at home in the exurban communities that have grown rapidly over the past two decades.  The steady decline of the Grand Rapids Republican Party over the past five cycles will hurt Heacock the most (as well as Lori Wiersma in the 29th State Senate District Republican primary), and he'll be hurt further by the votes that Hardiman will take from conservative African American voters in the core (not that many, but still some). Haridman's candidacy is hurt in part by Heacock's, and the limited appeal of his social conservative ideology in the exurban areas of the 3rd District. Amash won election in the 72nd State House District in 2008 because of ample funding and a multicandidate primary. Given that he has both again, as well as unique geographic positioning, Amash has a strong road to victory in the 3rd GOP primary. However, the general election will be another story.

It's that time of campaign cycle again - time for us to pick our Democratic nominees for various offices. While some of our nominees will be picked on the August 3 primary, the rest will be nominated on August 28 and 29 at the Michigan Democratic Party Convention.

That's where we will formally nominate our endorsed candidates for Secretary of State and Attorney General, Jocelyn Benson and David Leyton, as well as candidates for State Supreme Court, Board of Education, and governing boards at U-M, MSU, and WSU.

If you're not running for Precinct Delegate or another office, you must be an MDP member by July 29 to vote! (If you joined or or renewed your membership after last August 29, you should be good to go!)

All the details, including an agenda, can be found here.

Looks like the fun times in the 72nd and 75th State House GOP primaries are continuing. The GR Press endorsed Ken Yonker and Bing Goei in their respective primaries over Eric Larson and Jordan Bush. Bush adviser Tyler Gaastra wasn't happy about this, and put his feelings in the comments:

The litmus test for the Press endorsement is support for tax subsidies or outlays? The Granholm-directed economy has failed Michigan. We can't rely on central planners in Lansing to dictate which businesses are likely to succeed in the market. Instead, we need low taxes for all businesses. The government should not play favorites. This is the philosophical argument against tax subsidies. The practical argument is that tax subsidies are not transparent and are abused (Hanger 42). They create an incentive for unlawful behavior.

If you like the Granholm's economic planning, vote for Ken Yonker or Bing Goei. If you like equal opportunity and free markets, vote for Eric Larson or Jordan Bush.

Updated: Digging a deeper hole:

You can't be pro-free market and pro-tax subsidies. Eric Larson is stronger on this issue.
So far, the Press has only endorsed candidates who favor the use of tax subsidies. If Mr. Yonker was passionately against tax subsidies, then the Press would not have endorsed.

Mr. Yonker does have a much better, more conservative, platform than Bing Goei, so I did him a disservice by linking the two.
You can read the full article and comments here:
http://www.mlive.com/opinion/g...

MI-2 Democratic congressional candidate Fred Johnson is going to be live blogging at www.CrooksandLiars.com on Saturday, July 10th, from 2:00PM to 3:00PM Eastern Standard Time. Contributions made to Fred Johnson's actblue page that day will be used to advertise on Michigan blogs.

Saturday July 10th, from 2 to 3. That's when the sun is at its peak in the middle of July and it's going to be hot as the blazes out...so it's a fine time for political junkies to get out of the sun and learn why Fred Johnson can and should win the election for Michigan's 2nd congressional district.

With Pete Hoekstra retiring from the congressional seat, now is the first time in many years it's open to a non-incumbent. It's also likely the last time it's going to be open to a non-incumbent for many election cycles. So if ever there was a time to flip Michigan's 2nd congressional district into Democratic hands, now is that time.

By the conventional narrative, this election year is supposed to be a big one for conservatives. But if that's the case, why on earth is Tea Party Republican Rand Paul sagging in the polls, showing a neck and neck fight with Democrat Jack Conway in Kentucky's US Senate elections? Kentucky! Home of Chinless Mitch McConnell. A very Republican friendly senate seat...

...it's looking like many voters aren't as fired up about the extreme brand of conservatism as peddlers of the Conservative Resurgence narrative may like us to believe.

So we come back to the Michigan 2nd congressional distrcit.

The likely Republican nominee for MI-2 is Jay Riemersma: every bit as crack-pot conservative as Rand Paul. The man is a director of the Family Research Council, for cryin' out loud.

So not only do Democrats have an opening between incumbents, but we have our own ultra-radical conservative to smack around in a climate that's not all that thrilled about the crackpot conservatives.

This really is it. It's a chance to flip a congressional seat.

Again...any contributions made to Fred Johnson's actblue page on the 10th will be used to advertise on Michigan blogs. The campaign needs the contributions now to flip this seat.

Why does Jordan have a picture of an unknown woman seemingly busting a gut laughing at the idea of Bush being a State Representative?  Strange imaging from the Bush Campaign.

If you are not registered to vote, today (Tuesday) is your last chance to do so before the primary!

While I have your attention: Did you file to run for Democratic Precinct Delegate before the May deadline? I hope so - but if you didn't, you still have a chance to run as a write-in! If you run as a write-in, please keep in mind that that form is due at the city or township clerk's office* no later than 4PM July 30 - but of course you want to get it in ASAP so you don't forget!

*Thanks, Mark!